Representing Uncertainty in Visualisations of Future Landscapes

The use of computer-based visualisations to depict landscape futures is increasingly common in environmental decision-making, particularly where information must be communicated to a wide and non-expert audience. Continuing technological development makes it possible to use real-world data as a base for such visualisations, with modifications made to the landscape data as appropriate depending on the scenario to be illustrated. The effects of factors such as the level of realism in the images produced and the capability for viewer interaction with the scene are beginning to be addressed by researchers, but relatively little attention has been given to the representation of uncertainty. The complexity of environmental systems means that uncertainty always exists to some degree when illustrating possible or proposed future states for any landscape, and it is essential that this be communicated to stakeholders, decision-makers and other audiences. Cartographic techniques exist and have been used to illustrate error and other quality issues relating to spatial data, but there has been no large-scale application to landscape visualisation. Options for communicating levels of uncertainty are being explored using a study area in Norfolk, in the eastern part of the UK. This work first considers sources of uncertainty; it then moves on to examine various illustration methods in terms of technical feasibility and data needs as well as audience reaction and perception. In helping visualisation producers to illustrate uncertainty in the clearest and most accessible way, the results of the study have the potential to enhance environmental decision-making processes.